14‏/03‏/2011

Israel and Democratic Change in the Arab world

One of the apprehension in the world, which took place in Tunisia and Egypt and then spread throughout the Arab world, as governors and obsess the Israelis out of power, the moderates and extremists, and right-wing and left-wing and the middle with. They argue Jmievi this concern that you are being like what happened since time immemorial in the Arab world. The first impression was that the Egyptian revolution is like the Iranian revolution in 1979, it features sweeping popularity, which you want to uproot the government system from the ground up, and who will come to power are radical Islamists! The People's overwhelming evidence there was from the widespread and very broad, and the determination to stay in the streets in large numbers and not the fear of death under the batons security men and their bullets. On the issue of the regime; the All logos, filed by protesters suggest that, some of them are not only spoken of the President, and even spoken of the system calls with him. The Muslim protesters, Sirorthm to seize power, and what it found evidence of non-space programs «island», and the enthusiasm of Iran and Hezbollah have shown, then letters of Sheikh Qaradawi calling for violent change, go for the Liberation of Palestine!
With the passage of days and weeks, and finding the dimensions of sustained movement, and control of slogans and demands precision, the fears of the Islamists or the Muslim Brotherhood has not expired, but it was the observers Israelis to recognize that the demands of the demonstrators normal or democratic familiar, such as trading power, and free elections, fighting corruption, and creating job opportunities for young people. The Brotherhood-affiliated themselves, but they asked for more, and said they would not seek to not get on the legality of the establishment of a political party, and will not fight the battle of the Presidency, and will continue with other demonstrators in their demands. Thus, despite the lack of fear, depression «Islamic phenomenon»; the military and politicians have begun to express Tojdzisathm peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. The leadership of the Egyptian military had announced the guarantee of regional and international conventions, a fierce some object of concern. While the military said that Egypt is not ready in any case for war now or a few years; it was all of them recognize that the «disorder» in neighboring Arab countries, is causing an unstable environment, and encourages the Radical, put on Israel strategic challenges, beyond the risk of the phenomena Hamas and Hezbollah, because they are of a different nature. His view of some military experts consider that both Hamas and Hezbollah, have come together are considerations of internal strife, the struggle for power inside Lebanon and the Palestinian home. Namely, the insides do not differ from the other Arab, which is concerned with the change inside, too. However, the party and the movement possessed weapons, and therefore in order and seek to predominance of the Interior in this way fast; while authorities possess alone in other Arab countries and means of force; Therefore, peaceful protesters are working to change. However, this peaceful change, and mixed a lot of chaos, and go the stability that was secured by regulations, it causes in the medium term risks to Israel, as Israel was braced in Egypt, Jordan and Syria.
The result or conclusion of military and strategic to Israel, and within ten years, to worry about the phenomena: the phenomenon of flood chaos at them by organized revolutionary Islamic and non-Muslim authorities can not vulnerable on the set, also failed to Lebanese authority, and the phenomenon the other: the direction of the neighboring Arab countries and remote policies more radical toward the Jewish state; including the threat of peace agreements, either on the grounds that they were fair, either on the grounds that Israel continues to colonize Palestine and to increase the settlement, and does not want peace. It would therefore be to develop the capacity of Israel's army to fight on several fronts, and face-and-run wars like the conditions imposed by them in the past decades, the revolutionary non-Islamic organizations and Islamic.
He stopped a team of researchers (often left-wing) at the opportunities that Votaatha Israel for peace in the past ten years. The view of those it had before on Israel from the Palestinian Authority, and Syria, and intercessions American, Arab and European, several initiatives to end the occupation of Syrian territory and reach a peace agreement, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and peaceful to Israel on the land and the limits of 1967. However, the Israeli right (and lure American days with or without the temptation to Sharon after) the rejection of all attempts, and made the settlement and war and by the flash and one almost every other consideration. But the right and the ideologists, do not worry about this argument. They say that even the previous agreements are now under threat. Arab regimes lost and lose its legitimacy (including the Palestinian Authority), as well as the conventions held by or that was willing to be made. Therefore, even modest attempts under way (try the U.S.) should not proceed with the case, and must wait for settles from developments, and to find out what Stwol Arab revolutionary phenomenon. This includes meditation, or wait the Syrian as well. U.S. Sen. John Kerry and others are moving to restore the negotiations between Syria and Israel. There have been negotiations and contacts of endeavors by the Turkish and French, and resulted in nothing. But the Syrian regime is trying to negotiate when it is most always by the American pressure, or when forced to publicly siding to Iran and Hezbollah, then reduce the impression of bias introduced the negotiation, to improve relations with the United States and the European Union.
With this reasoning is seeking hard-line Israeli right of persuasion and conviction by not responding to U.S. and European attempts to restore the negotiations between Syria and Israel. However, as there are those who say the hawks from outside the camp should be agreed, first in favor of the current developments in the Arab world? Is it for the benefit of Iran and Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood Baldoakhl? Or is it purely internal developments will benefit from Middle Eastern regimes, non-Arab and Arab? If the first command is likely better to wait already, but prepare for the worst military and political perspectives. Though the Syrian regime would be at risk, it is better to reach out to help him, because Syria will not be change for the benefit of Israel certainly. But right-wing and leftist parties agree that the conditions of the Palestinian Authority is getting worse, does not mean that a significant breakthrough in the situation of Hamas. Conclusion but that the peace agreement with the Palestinian Authority today or tomorrow will bring something better for Israel than it is now.
It's not now that the danger is still the Israeli or decreasing. The Palestinians are still divided, and continues to Iranian threats Westerners gather from around Israel, for reasons of their own, and the other relates. But the matter is that the entire strategic situation in the region to climate change regulations in the countries surrounding Israel, and the changing international situation as a result of the region's future. Even if she continues to peace agreements with Israel (and of those conventions is fleeting at least for now); the whole world can no longer occupying the patience or delivery of the Palestinian territories or Arabic, or is no longer there is no guarantee at all, for the continuation of force or other peace agreements. And the support 14 countries in the Security Council with a draft resolution against Israeli settlement in the last week, said a message could be directed to Israel, a message he could veto the U.S. to cover or underestimated. The United States can not be with the democratic change in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and with the Israeli occupation in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon.
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